The first opinion polls for April look great for Reform UK as the party looks set to win the Runcorn by-election in May. Find Out Now put Reform a whopping 6 points ahead of Labour (28% to 22%, with the Tories a lowly third place on 20%). The previous poll by Find Out Now — alongside Electoral Calculus — had Reform just two points clear.

A second poll by Techne ties Reform and Labour on 24%, whereas Techne's last poll had Labour one point ahead. If nothing else, this suggests the Rupert Lowe saga has done little to dent support for Nigel Farage's party. Set to clean up in local elections, Reform is also ahead in polling for Runcorn. So clear is this that Tory MP Esther McVey recently said her party should stand aside as part of an “electoral pact” with Reform UK.

This represents yet more bad news for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch — whose leadership of the Conservatives is fast becoming an asset to Reform — as McVey has defied the leader's position that no pact will take place. The bad news piles up as up to 60 Reform council candidates for May's local elections have defected from the Tories.

It isn't just the Conservatives, however. Polling by Survation found over half of LabourList readers expect Labour to lose the Runcorn by-election and anticipate the party will lose a “significant number of seats” at local elections as well. Reform still has its risks as a challenger party of course. The odd unpalatable candidate still slips through the net, although the newly professionalised party quickly gets rid. Policy is also still thin, while Farage has his critics over both Lowe and support for US President Donald Trump.

Still, credibility is growing, policy being fleshed out, the Lowe debacle seems to be receding in the public consciousness (especially since one report appeared to back Reform's version of events), while Farage seems to have created some distance from Trump while still maintaining a valuable friendship.

Throw all the rocks they might, Labour and the Tories are still playing catch-up with the Reform UK revolution. Of course — as the Lowe episode demonstrated — Farage's party could still be undone by internal strife as much as external threats.

Moreover, a change of leadership in the Conservative Party could remove one of Reform's greatest assets. Maybe Reform would do just as well against Robert Jenrick. Maybe not. Personally I think the optics of removing Badenoch would be horrific, however under fire she is.

Next month will reveal whether Reform's poll numbers are genuine and can translate into real electoral success or not. Right now, the Tories seem scared, a pact perhaps the best way of guarding against being the junior partner in any future coalition. More immediately, Runcorn looks set to go to Reform and, with it, a momentum built since last July set to strengthen.