Nigel Farage has been named as the favourite choice to replace Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, according to new polling. But there was also bad news for the Reform leader because most voters still said he was not serious about wanting to run the country – even though he has insisted he wants to win a general election and be the next PM.

A new poll by Lord Ashcroft found 19% of voters think Nigel Farage would make the best prime minister, with just 8% saying Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. The numbers for both politicians are lower than the 35% who said Sir Keir Starmer made the best prime minister, but it meant Mr Farage was the most popular choice after the incumbent. Even 5% of those who voted Labour in the 2024 General Election said Mr Farage was the best choice to be prime minister right now.

However, the poll also found just 22% of voters thought Mr Farage was “serious about getting into government and changing things”. It found 15% believed he was serious about representing the views of Reform voters and changing things as an opposition MP but did not really want power. In total, 47% agreed with the statement that “he just wants to get publicity and cause trouble, he doesn’t really want to bring about change.”

Sir Keir may welcome the poll result showing voters think he is the best person to be Prime Minister but the findings are not all good news for Labour. Asked what they know about the things this Labour Government has done so far, the most popular answer by far was means-testing winter fuel payments. The poll found 32% knew about this, followed by 10% saying they were aware of the increase in employer National Insurance contributions.

Reform hopes to win the parliamentary by-election of Runcorn and Helsby on May 1, which follows the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was convicted of assault.

Reform has announced its candidate is Sarah Pochin, who has served as a magistrate for two decades, as well as being a local mayor, and a mother. Mr Farage launched her campaign at Reform’s campaign headquarters in Runcorn.

This seat is the 16th-safest Labour stronghold in the country but Reform says the latest polling shows it has a real chance of winning.

Amesbury, who was suspended by the Labour Party following his arrest, pleaded guilty to the offence.

He won his seat last year with a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK, with the Conservatives a close third.

The by-election is the first major test of public opinion following last summer’s General Election. It offers Reform UK a chance to prove whether its opinion polling lead can be converted into electoral success.

The Conservatives are campaigning in the May 1 local elections under the slogan "lower taxes, better services".

They say Labour has driven Birmingham City Council – the largest local authority in Europe – to the brink of bankruptcy, with rat-infested rubbish piling up in the streets. Tories say the message is “vote Labour, get trash”.