‘Positive momentum’: Is the US war on Iran about to end?

Diplomatic efforts to end the United States-Israel war on Iran have gathered pace, potentially reducing the chance of another round of intense conflict.

US President Donald Trump and Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani hailed positive closed-door talks at the White House on Monday, with Trump saying he considers the war “effectively” at an end.

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But amid talk of peace, both sides have boasted that their militaries are ready and Iran has come under attack.

The US “is fully locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made”, Trump said, but added there would likely be no reason to use it as negotiations with Tehran are “going very well”.

Iran pointed to the possibility of a diplomatic solution while maintaining a deterrence posture.

On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the war would “not end either through military means or by increasing sanctions”, but only through “using the language of respect”.

The comment came a day after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had hinted at an openness to negotiations, telling the country’s leadership to end the “no war, no peace” reality.

“We can hold talks with dignity and bring the matter to an end with dignity,” Pezeshkian said.

US domestic pressures driving peace

The crushing Republican defeat in the US midterm elections earlier this month is one of the elements injecting new life into stalled diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, analysts say.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance both acknowledged that the conflict – which rattled the global energy market and contributed to the rising cost of living – played a significant role in the Democratic Party taking firm control of Congress.

Negar Mortazavi, senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, said the Republican losses “dramatically raised the political cost of more escalation”.

“The Democratic blue tsunami, powered by progressive and antiwar candidates, pushed the party overnight toward a stronger and more united opposition to war,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives in January, told reporters on Monday that the Democratic Party will “end the war in Iran one way or the other”.

Outgoing Republican lawmaker Thomas Massie moved to impeach US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war in Iran, setting up a potentially explosive vote in Congress just days after the midterm elections.

Mortazavi said the result gives the Democrats a stronger mandate to challenge the unpopular war.

“If Democrats unite and use their new power aggressively, they can make it increasingly difficult for Trump to continue the war, pressuring him to end it,” he added.

‘Political and strategic costs of escalation keep growing’

Additionally, Trump’s main ally in the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faces an uncertain political future after the October 27 general election.

His rival Gadi Eisenkot was tasked on Saturday with forming a new government coalition that can survive the opposition of the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu.

Mortazavi said a third element was Qatar’s intensive mediation, including high-level engagement with both Washington and Tehran, which is creating a diplomatic pathway out of the conflict.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday amid renewed hopes for diplomatic talks, easing inflation concerns. A diplomatic breakthrough could result in a sustained reduction in energy costs and consumer prices.

“A diplomatic breakthrough is not guaranteed, but the political and strategic costs of escalation keep growing, making another round of war less likely,” Mortazavi said. “Ultimately, Trump will have to decide whether to accept a negotiated end to the war or prolong a conflict with diminishing political support.”

Iran braces for escalation as ‘breakthrough’ appears elusive

Iranian leaders have long maintained that actions speak louder than words when it comes to Washington.

US attacks against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz and on the island of Qeshm have been a daily occurrence. Tehran has reacted by downing US aircraft and controlling marine traffic on the key waterway.

Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group and the US 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit and its Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group are expected to reach the Middle East later this month.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei on Monday accused Washington of spreading “fake news” about potential negotiations, demanding that the US accept Tehran’s seven conditions, including the removal of the naval blockade and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said accepting this “would come at a huge cost” for the Trump administration.

“Reaching a diplomatic arrangement without securing any nuclear concessions from Iran would amount to an admission of defeat, and the Americans seem reluctant to accept that,” he told Al Jazeera. “What regional countries, particularly Qatar, have been trying hard to do is bridge this gap. There is still no sign of a breakthrough on these issues.”

To break the impasse, Azizi said Trump might “launch a major but largely symbolic attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to claim victory and end the war,” even if Iranians are prepared to escalate in response.

In a phone interview with C-SPAN’s Washington Journal Primetime on Monday, Trump said, “We may have to hit Pickaxe Mountain”, which the US says hosts an Iranian nuclear site being constructed deep underground.

On Saturday, Trump called US attacks against Iran’s Qeshm island, in the Strait of Hormuz, “minor strikes” targeting Iranian air defences and launchers.

Another scenario could see the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continue, in the hope of getting more concessions from Tehran.

On his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed on Monday that Gulf countries favour maintaining the blockade of Iran’s economy rather than escalating the war, which would be “approximately five times bigger than the first hit”.

Azizi argued that while this may seem like a lower-cost option for the US and its Gulf allies, it is inherently unsustainable because Tehran has made it clear – most recently with the Supreme Leader’s statement – that it sees the blockade as a continuation of the war.

“It would only be a matter of time before the Iranians decide to escalate significantly against the US naval forces involved in the blockade. It is still unclear to what extent they have the technical capability to hit US warships, but given how rapidly Iran’s missile program has been developing, one should not rule out that possibility,” the analyst said.

“And if that happens, we may end up in the same large-scale war scenario that everyone, including the US, has been trying to avoid.”